Floods in Pakistan and both flooding and persistent drought in China have diminished the total amount of rice available for consumption this year. Rice, along with wheat and corn, is responsible for as much as 40% of global calories. With global wheat supply already hindered by the ongoing war in Ukraine, any hiccups in the provision of rice pose a major threat to people whose diets rely heavily on the life-giving grain — as many as 3.5 billion people.

The largest share of global rice is grown and consumed in China — but China, like Saudi Arabia and the Philippines, still must import more than $1 billion worth of the dietary staple annually to feed its population. Major importers such as these are likely to be the hardest hit by rising prices, as are countries already facing major inflation of food prices, including Pakistan, Turkey, and Syria.

Most of the rice grown in East Asia is in the hands of small-scale producers — the vast majority of whom in Vietnam, for example, work plots 1.3 acres or smaller — whose crop is intended for domestic consumption in their respective countries. However, growers receive a shrinking slice of the value of their harvest, as the supply chain concentrates a growing portion of profits in the hands of supermarkets, food production companies, and seed and fertilizer providers. In some places, growers receive a mere 4% of the amount consumers pay for rice — and most max out at 17% of the value. On average, their farms generate between $2 and $6 per day — amounts that cover, at worst, only 13% of their expenses.