For a while there, it looked like the European security order might be in the middle of a fundamental shift. Both presidents Donald Trump and Joe Biden promised an “America First” approach and a “foreign policy for the middle class.” US troops were set to leave Europe; Washington more or less unilaterally ended the Afghanistan war; and NATO was riven by bickering, not to mention a reluctance to spend on defense.

Not so fast, said Moscow.

Russia’s February invasion of Ukraine, besides being an international crime of the highest order, proved an unwitting shot in the arm for a divided and directionless West. Suddenly, NATO is back and more united than ever; European governments are pledging big spending on their own militaries; and Washington has a hundred thousand troops on the continent for the first time in years. What looked like an emerging brave new world seems to have transformed seamlessly into the status quo on steroids.