Doing his best George W. Bush “Mission Accomplished” impression, President Donald Trump recently declared that he’s “already solved inflation” and “costs are down.” As proof, Trump touted Walmart’s holiday promotional meal basket. One company running a deal is not proof of an overall economic trend. But if it indicates anything, the conclusion would be the opposite: the nation’s largest retailer reduced the price of its Thanksgiving kit by 25 percent, anticipating cash-strapped consumers. The basket contains fewer items than last year, and the company swapped out name brands for cheaper private-label items.

Trump’s extrapolation from Walmart’s deal obscures the grueling truth about food costs: they’ve spiraled out of control. Grocery prices have climbed 35 percent since 2019, while corresponding unit volumes have plummeted 5 percent, a drop-off totaling over 13 billion units. The top ten categories jumped nearly 60 percent in price, with many of them heavily monopolized by a handful of processors. Food prices have now risen higher than the gross margins of most retailers. Real wages are not keeping up with price growth. Grocers can no longer solve for affordability. Before the Trump administration announced it would stop gathering data on hunger, 47 million Americans were experiencing food insecurity.

To get a more honest sense of how food prices have changed, let’s ignore the Walmart package deal and consult Jacobin’s holiday party shopping list instead. For the holiday party, we shopped for about thirty items, including a ten-pound turkey, a three-pound chuck roast, some soda, chocolate, a dozen eggs, milk, butter, bread, ice cream, seltzer, coffee and creamer, some cookies, crackers, plus cooking oil, flour, foil, potatoes and root veggies, green beans, mushrooms, a three-pound Tofurky for the vegans, and a few other staples.