“I do solemnly swear  . . . ” January 20, 2025 was a proud moment for Bernie Sanders. The socialist incumbent’s reelection hadn’t always seemed so secure: Hillary had made a strong showing in her fourth-straight primary run, and the GOP’s hologram ads showing the young Bernie dancing on a University of Chicago roof only just failed to swing Ohio. But now he had made it to his second inauguration.

There wasn’t the enthusiasm of four years before: Fox anchor Dave Rubin noted the crowds on Capitol Hill had thinned considerably. Bernie had enjoyed some victories, from ending cash bail to the introduction of a $15 minimum wage. Yet while dozens of socialists had been elected to the House, bipartisan opposition had thwarted both his health care reform and plans for student debt amnesty.

It’s not hard to imagine a Bernie Sanders presidency turning out like this — as a tale of hope followed by gridlock. In his 2016 primary campaign he emphasized the need for confrontation with special interests and the billionaires who dominate US politics. Yet the odds of winning such a fight are daunting: labor and social movements are still weak, and his allies are hardly on the brink of sweeping Congress.